On the secondary carbon market, EUA prices continued to trade at higher levels compared to the end of the previous year. As of 8 January 2026, the price was reported at approximately €88.19/tCO₂, while on 9 January 2026 EUA contracts closed at around €88.3/tCO₂, confirming a slight day-on-day upward trend amid moderate trading volumes and expectations of tighter market conditions in 2026.
The last relevant contract close in 2025, on 31 December, was around €85.7–85.8/tCO₂.
At the beginning of 2026, EUA prices were therefore approximately €2.7–3.0/tCO₂, or about 3.1–3.5% higher, than on the final trading day of 2025. This development reflects a moderate consolidation of demand typical for the early-year compliance positioning under the EU ETS.
COP30: Meaningful Climate Progress or Unfulfilled Promises?
COP30, held in Belém, delivered several notable developments, particularly in the area of adaptation finance, where countries agreed to triple funding by 2035, setting a collective target of USD 300 billion. In addition, 59 global indicators were adopted to monitor progress toward the Global Goal on Adaptation. However, significant uncertainty remains regarding the long-standing commitment to mobilize USD 100 billion per year, a pledge made more than a decade ago.
A key step forward was the establishment of a formal mechanism for a just transition, introducing requirements related to social protection, labor rights, and support for communities affected by decarbonization. These requirements will need to be integrated into national climate plans, with the involvement of trade unions and civil society.
Beyond official decisions, several voluntary initiatives with significant implementation potential were launched. The Global Implementation Accelerator aims to speed up the execution of national climate commitments, while the Belém Mission for 1.5°C proposes a cooperation framework between governments, the private sector, and NGOs to keep the 1.5°C target within reach. Brazil also announced the “Tropical Forests Forever Facility”, a global financing mechanism designed to support the permanent conservation of tropical forests and the indigenous communities that depend on them, marking one of the most ambitious initiatives of its kind.
Nevertheless, the most notable omission—dominating the final COP30 debates—was the absence of a binding agreement on the phase-out of fossil fuels. Despite pressure from the European Union and numerous island states, the final text did not include a clear commitment to a fossil fuel phase-out. Instead, Brazil committed to developing two voluntary roadmaps—one for the gradual elimination of fossil fuels and another for halting deforestation—to be presented at COP31, leaving the door open for more concrete progress in 2026.
The conference recorded record participation, with over 56,000 delegates from more than 190 countries, including the largest-ever representation of indigenous communities at a COP. The agenda was intense, featuring over 1,000 side eventsinvolving political leaders, private sector representatives, and civil society. This mobilization highlights the growing urgency of climate policy in a global context marked by extreme weather events and increasing pressure to accelerate the energy transition.
COP31 will take place in Antalya, Turkey, under the Turkey–Australia co-presidency, in a year when expectations for tangible results will be significantly higher. The outcomes of COP30 demonstrate important progress on adaptation and on the framework for a just transition, yet continued dependence on fossil fuels remains a central obstacle. In 2026, the focus is expected to shift toward adopting binding fossil fuel phase-out plans, strengthening support mechanisms for a just transition, and improving the predictability of climate finance, in order to keep the global trajectory aligned with the 1.5°C objective.
Overall, developments in recent weeks outline a global climate landscape in which declared ambition is increasing, but implementation remains the main challenge. Carbon markets, European regulations, and the outcomes of COP30 all send the same signal: pressure to decarbonize is intensifying, and companies that rapidly align their strategies with the new requirements will be best positioned in the years ahead. Carbon Expert remains alongside companies seeking to address the climate transition in a rigorous, transparent, and results-oriented manner.